Forecast of PE, PP, PVC, and PET Prices in Africa for February 2025

(Each bar represents the expected trend (-1: slight decrease, 0: stable, 1: slight increase) for each polymer in each region.)

Based on January’s market trends, the forecast for polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Africa for February suggests moderate fluctuations influenced by demand recovery, supply constraints, and broader economic factors.

Polyethylene (PE)

• Forecast: PE prices are expected to show slight increases in regions like North Africa and Nigeria due to localized restocking and tighter supply of certain grades like LLDPE. In contrast, East and South Africa are likely to experience stable or slightly declining prices due to weak demand and ample supply.

• Key Drivers:

  • Tighter supply from the Middle East due to scheduled maintenance turnarounds.

  • Gradual demand recovery, particularly in North Africa, with buyers re-entering the market post-holidays.

  • The potential influence of lower freight rates, though not immediately impactful.

Polypropylene (PP)

• Forecast: PP prices may remain stable to slightly higher in North and West Africa due to restocking and increased inquiries in late January. However, in East and South Africa, prices are expected to stay flat or decline marginally as demand remains subdued.

• Key Drivers:

  • Limited supply from the Middle East amid turnarounds, partially offset by Asian imports.

  • Economic pressures and fiscal uncertainties that continue to restrain buyer activity.

  • Increased interest from packaging and infrastructure projects in select regions like Nigeria and North Africa.

Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)

• Forecast: PVC prices are likely to remain stable across most regions, with slight upward movement in North and West Africa due to seasonal demand from construction projects. Egypt and East Africa are expected to see flat to declining prices as economic challenges persist.

• Key Drivers:

  • Construction sector activity in North Africa and West Africa supporting localized demand.

  • Ample global supply despite some logistical constraints.

  • Lingering economic and political uncertainties in Egypt, dampening market sentiment.

Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)

• Forecast: PET prices are expected to remain largely stable, with slight upward potential in North and West Africa due to preparations for increased beverage sector demand ahead of the warmer months. East and South Africa are likely to see flat prices given weak consumer demand and cautious buying behavior.

• Key Drivers:

  • Stable import volumes from Asia and the Middle East, supported by easing freight rates.

  • Gradual recovery in the packaging and beverage sectors, particularly in North and West Africa.

  • Economic pressures limiting large-scale restocking activity in regions like East Africa.

Overall Market Sentiment for February

The African polymer markets are expected to experience subdued but stable activity in February, with localized price movements influenced by regional demand recovery and supply dynamics. Economic conditions, political stability, and global supply factors will remain critical in shaping market behavior.

Disclaimer

The forecast provided is based on January trends and market observations. It is intended for informational purposes only, and users should conduct their own assessments for commercial decision-making. The author assumes no liability for outcomes resulting from the use of this information.